Forecast Contest
Time Series, Spring 2023
Final overall standings
| Name |
Score |
| Margaret M. |
84.5 |
| Kate C. |
87.5 |
| Andrew H. |
92.5 |
| Bryan C. |
97.5 |
| Addie W. |
107.0 |
| Graham B. |
109.0 |
| Andrew C. |
109.5 |
| Stephen W. |
109.5 |
| Henry K. |
111.0 |
| Robby K. |
113.0 |
| Mohsen E. |
113.5 |
| Justin W. |
114.0 |
| Noah S. |
115.0 |
| Madi P. |
120.0 |
| Alina A. |
121.0 |
| Rohan P. |
127.5 |
| Hamiz M. |
128.5 |
| Jaci V. |
131.5 |
| Ethan G. |
147.5 |
| Zac T. |
148.5 |
| Clara Q. |
150.0 |
| Aksheytha C. |
153.0 |
| Kaitlyn A. |
169.0 |
Standings for Google Stock Close January 27
Correct value was 99.37
| Name |
point |
lower |
upper |
point_score |
int_score |
Score |
| Addie W. |
99.27252 |
98.88578 |
99.66591 |
0.09748 |
0.78013 |
2.0 |
| Graham B. |
99.00000 |
97.00000 |
102.00000 |
0.37000 |
5.00000 |
5.0 |
| Andrew H. |
100.50000 |
98.75000 |
102.50000 |
1.13000 |
3.75000 |
7.0 |
| Bryan C. |
98.20000 |
92.00000 |
104.00000 |
1.17000 |
12.00000 |
13.5 |
| Hamiz M. |
97.00000 |
94.00000 |
100.00000 |
2.37000 |
6.00000 |
14.5 |
| Robby K. |
97.56000 |
93.00000 |
105.00000 |
1.81000 |
12.00000 |
16.5 |
| Noah S. |
97.00000 |
94.00000 |
105.00000 |
2.37000 |
11.00000 |
16.5 |
| Margaret M. |
98.45000 |
94.50000 |
110.25000 |
0.92000 |
15.75000 |
17.0 |
| Madi P. |
102.00000 |
96.00000 |
105.00000 |
2.63000 |
9.00000 |
17.5 |
| Andrew C. |
97.75000 |
91.00000 |
105.00000 |
1.62000 |
14.00000 |
18.0 |
| Mohsen E. |
100.00000 |
101.00000 |
98.50000 |
0.63000 |
27.50000 |
22.0 |
| Rohan P. |
96.50000 |
89.90000 |
102.50000 |
2.87000 |
12.60000 |
23.5 |
| Henry K. |
102.00000 |
91.00000 |
106.00000 |
2.63000 |
15.00000 |
24.5 |
| Jaci V. |
106.00000 |
97.00000 |
110.00000 |
6.63000 |
13.00000 |
29.0 |
| Clara Q. |
96.50000 |
94.00000 |
98.00000 |
2.87000 |
17.70000 |
29.0 |
| Justin W. |
97.70000 |
80.69000 |
114.71000 |
1.67000 |
34.02000 |
29.0 |
| Ethan G. |
96.00000 |
94.00000 |
98.00000 |
3.37000 |
17.70000 |
30.5 |
| Kaitlyn A. |
93.00000 |
85.00000 |
107.00000 |
6.37000 |
22.00000 |
35.0 |
| Stephen W. |
89.65000 |
83.50000 |
101.43000 |
9.72000 |
17.93000 |
37.0 |
| Kate C. |
94.00000 |
80.00000 |
98.00000 |
5.37000 |
31.70000 |
37.0 |
| Aksheytha C. |
115.00000 |
100.00000 |
120.00000 |
15.63000 |
26.30000 |
40.5 |
| Alina A. |
91.00000 |
87.00000 |
92.50000 |
8.37000 |
74.20000 |
43.0 |
| Zac T. |
115.00000 |
105.00000 |
120.00000 |
15.63000 |
71.30000 |
44.5 |
Standings for Google Stock Close March 31
Correct value: 104.
| Name |
point |
lower |
upper |
point_score |
int_score |
Score |
| Rohan P. |
104.600 |
100.50000 |
109.5000 |
0.600 |
9.00000 |
2.0 |
| Ethan G. |
105.000 |
93.00000 |
110.0000 |
1.000 |
17.00000 |
6.0 |
| Andrew H. |
107.320 |
104.00000 |
117.0000 |
3.320 |
13.00000 |
6.0 |
| Jaci V. |
109.000 |
101.00000 |
115.0000 |
5.000 |
14.00000 |
10.0 |
| Addie W. |
100.333 |
98.36068 |
102.4364 |
3.667 |
19.71172 |
11.0 |
| Madi P. |
99.000 |
95.00000 |
103.0000 |
5.000 |
18.00000 |
12.0 |
| Bryan C. |
101.000 |
82.00000 |
123.0000 |
3.000 |
41.00000 |
17.0 |
| Mohsen E. |
110.000 |
100.00000 |
120.0000 |
6.000 |
20.00000 |
17.5 |
| Hamiz M. |
110.000 |
100.00000 |
120.0000 |
6.000 |
20.00000 |
17.5 |
| Kate C. |
95.000 |
85.00000 |
110.0000 |
9.000 |
25.00000 |
22.5 |
| Henry K. |
95.000 |
83.00000 |
117.0000 |
9.000 |
34.00000 |
23.5 |
| Margaret M. |
96.250 |
80.25000 |
120.5000 |
7.750 |
40.25000 |
25.0 |
| Andrew C. |
114.250 |
87.00000 |
125.0000 |
10.250 |
38.00000 |
27.0 |
| Robby K. |
115.760 |
99.00000 |
133.5000 |
11.760 |
34.50000 |
27.0 |
| Kaitlyn A. |
99.000 |
120.00000 |
75.0000 |
5.000 |
495.00000 |
30.0 |
| Graham B. |
110.000 |
125.00000 |
100.0000 |
6.000 |
275.00000 |
31.0 |
| Stephen W. |
92.060 |
85.60000 |
99.8000 |
11.940 |
56.20000 |
33.0 |
| Alina A. |
92.000 |
85.00000 |
100.0000 |
12.000 |
55.00000 |
33.0 |
| Clara Q. |
85.000 |
80.00000 |
90.0000 |
19.000 |
150.00000 |
37.0 |
| Zac T. |
130.000 |
115.00000 |
140.0000 |
26.000 |
135.00000 |
38.0 |
| Noah S. |
126.000 |
122.00000 |
129.0000 |
22.000 |
187.00000 |
40.0 |
| Justin W. |
75.950 |
51.50000 |
92.4200 |
28.050 |
156.72000 |
41.0 |
| Aksheytha C. |
142.000 |
130.00000 |
150.0000 |
38.000 |
280.00000 |
45.0 |
Standings for St. Louis High Temperature Feb 2
Correct value was 51
| Name |
point |
lower |
upper |
point_score |
int_score |
Score |
| Stephen W. |
41 |
35 |
51 |
10 |
16 |
3.0 |
| Kate C. |
43 |
30 |
60 |
8 |
30 |
3.5 |
| Alina A. |
40 |
30 |
50 |
11 |
30 |
6.5 |
| Henry K. |
40 |
28 |
70 |
11 |
42 |
8.0 |
| Clara Q. |
40 |
34 |
46 |
11 |
62 |
9.0 |
| Zac T. |
38 |
35 |
43 |
13 |
88 |
15.0 |
| Aksheytha C. |
34 |
20 |
45 |
17 |
85 |
17.0 |
| Robby K. |
32 |
24 |
47 |
19 |
63 |
17.0 |
| Justin W. |
33 |
20 |
46 |
18 |
76 |
17.0 |
| Margaret M. |
37 |
30 |
43 |
14 |
93 |
17.5 |
| Madi P. |
37 |
35 |
42 |
14 |
97 |
18.5 |
| Addie W. |
31 |
29 |
39 |
20 |
130 |
25.0 |
| Andrew H. |
31 |
27 |
39 |
20 |
132 |
26.0 |
| Jaci V. |
31 |
24 |
38 |
20 |
144 |
28.0 |
| Mohsen E. |
30 |
25 |
35 |
21 |
170 |
31.0 |
| Bryan C. |
26 |
15 |
40 |
25 |
135 |
31.0 |
| Ethan G. |
26 |
23 |
30 |
25 |
217 |
35.0 |
| Kaitlyn A. |
25 |
15 |
33 |
26 |
198 |
36.0 |
| Graham B. |
26 |
24 |
28 |
25 |
234 |
36.0 |
| Andrew C. |
22 |
20 |
25 |
29 |
265 |
40.5 |
| Noah S. |
22 |
19 |
24 |
29 |
275 |
41.5 |
| Rohan P. |
21 |
19 |
23 |
30 |
284 |
44.0 |
| Hamiz M. |
17 |
12 |
22 |
34 |
300 |
46.0 |
Standings for Personal Consumption Expenditures Q4 2022
FRED series NA00349Q
Correct value: 4565752
| Name |
point |
lower |
upper |
point_score |
int_score |
Score |
| Bryan C. |
4600000 |
4490000 |
4720000 |
34248 |
230000 |
6.0 |
| Margaret M. |
4580000 |
4400000 |
4700000 |
14248 |
300000 |
7.0 |
| Zac T. |
4500000 |
4400000 |
4600000 |
65752 |
200000 |
8.0 |
| Stephen W. |
4490600 |
4450000 |
4600010 |
75152 |
150010 |
9.0 |
| Mohsen E. |
4515817 |
4490000 |
4530000 |
49935 |
397520 |
11.5 |
| Andrew H. |
4573096 |
4150000 |
4650000 |
7344 |
500000 |
11.5 |
| Noah S. |
4450000 |
4440000 |
4550000 |
115752 |
267520 |
15.0 |
| Graham B. |
4515817 |
4250000 |
4750000 |
49935 |
500000 |
15.0 |
| Alina A. |
4480000 |
4200000 |
4650000 |
85752 |
450000 |
18.0 |
| Justin W. |
4452031 |
4402000 |
4800000 |
113721 |
398000 |
18.0 |
| Andrew C. |
4632000 |
4620000 |
4600000 |
66248 |
562480 |
19.0 |
| Kate C. |
4430000 |
4400000 |
4750000 |
135752 |
350000 |
19.5 |
| Rohan P. |
4430000 |
4300000 |
4500000 |
135752 |
857520 |
27.5 |
| Clara Q. |
4440000 |
4400000 |
4460000 |
125752 |
1117520 |
29.0 |
| Jaci V. |
4370000 |
4290000 |
4500000 |
195752 |
867520 |
31.0 |
| Hamiz M. |
4300000 |
4000000 |
4600000 |
265752 |
600000 |
31.0 |
| Madi P. |
4333000 |
4099000 |
4500000 |
232752 |
1058520 |
33.0 |
| Addie W. |
4390260 |
4377700 |
4421772 |
175492 |
1483872 |
33.0 |
| Henry K. |
4000000 |
4600000 |
4422000 |
565752 |
1958000 |
38.0 |
| Aksheytha C. |
20000 |
15000 |
30000 |
4545752 |
45372520 |
40.0 |
| Robby K. |
17900000000 |
17700000000 |
18500000000 |
17895434248 |
177754342480 |
42.0 |
| Ethan G. |
4500000000000 |
4400000000000 |
4550000000000 |
4499995434248 |
44149954342480 |
44.5 |
| Kaitlyn A. |
4500000000000 |
4400000000000 |
4600000000000 |
4499995434248 |
44199954342480 |
45.5 |
Standings for Superbowl point spread
Correct value: 3.
| Name |
point |
lower |
upper |
point_score |
int_score |
Score |
| Noah S. |
3.0 |
1.00 |
7.00 |
0.0 |
6 |
2.0 |
| Andrew C. |
4.0 |
3.00 |
10.00 |
1.0 |
7 |
5.0 |
| Kate C. |
4.0 |
3.00 |
10.00 |
1.0 |
7 |
5.0 |
| Justin W. |
5.0 |
1.00 |
10.00 |
2.0 |
9 |
9.0 |
| Aksheytha C. |
5.0 |
2.00 |
12.00 |
2.0 |
10 |
10.5 |
| Robby K. |
6.0 |
3.00 |
12.00 |
3.0 |
9 |
10.5 |
| Henry K. |
7.0 |
1.00 |
17.00 |
4.0 |
16 |
17.0 |
| Margaret M. |
7.0 |
3.00 |
20.00 |
4.0 |
17 |
18.0 |
| Hamiz M. |
9.0 |
2.00 |
16.00 |
6.0 |
14 |
19.5 |
| Alina A. |
7.0 |
2.00 |
20.00 |
4.0 |
18 |
20.5 |
| Graham B. |
10.0 |
3.00 |
14.00 |
7.0 |
11 |
22.0 |
| Kaitlyn A. |
8.0 |
3.00 |
21.00 |
5.0 |
18 |
22.5 |
| Stephen W. |
10.0 |
3.00 |
21.00 |
7.0 |
18 |
27.5 |
| Bryan C. |
10.0 |
1.00 |
22.00 |
7.0 |
21 |
30.0 |
| Rohan P. |
9.0 |
7.00 |
11.00 |
6.0 |
44 |
30.5 |
| Mohsen E. |
10.0 |
5.00 |
15.00 |
7.0 |
30 |
31.5 |
| Ethan G. |
10.0 |
5.00 |
15.00 |
7.0 |
30 |
31.5 |
| Jaci V. |
14.0 |
3.00 |
21.00 |
11.0 |
18 |
33.5 |
| Addie W. |
11.5 |
5.25 |
18.75 |
8.5 |
36 |
36.0 |
| Madi P. |
12.0 |
8.00 |
17.00 |
9.0 |
59 |
39.0 |
| Andrew H. |
14.0 |
9.00 |
21.00 |
11.0 |
72 |
42.0 |
| Zac T. |
14.0 |
12.00 |
18.00 |
11.0 |
96 |
43.0 |
| Clara Q. |
21.0 |
15.00 |
27.00 |
18.0 |
132 |
46.0 |